Geopolitics in 2021: Passed year 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic and impacted global economy as a result of this. The consequences of Covid-19 pandemic will also be the dominating and governing issue for the year 2021. Outbreak’s impact due to economy lockdowns and varied restrictions across the nations will continue to hover the laid down consequences. The pandemic has exacerbated many underlying issues to the forefront that were already in existence.
Though global economy will be making the headlines, few trends would be the talking points and influencing factors of new year.
The biggest reality exacerbated and presented to forefront in bold by pandemic has been inequality – inequality among nation, people, races. When we talk about within a country, inequality in terms of income and access to basic facilities has even worsened in midst of Covid-19 pandemic. For affluent people, it was easier to follow physical distancing. Similarly, older and more at risk people were in better isolation if having a support system, as compared to those lacking it. In United States alone, mortality was starkly higher among certain ethnic minorities. In India, as many South Asian nations, the horrific treatment of migrant workers can never be forgotten for years to come.
The working class dependent on daily wages have suffered the most during pandemic. But this had not much to do with the generous funds dedicated for them or the lack of them. The deprivation across nations was due to the basic inequality in access to basic services of welfare and healthcare within countries even during normal times. This gap has only widened by the pandemic. Going forward in 2021, the countries who will be able to make vaccine available across people more effectively, equally and quickly would be able to bounce back more efficiently and rapidly.
Second predominating trend for the new year is largely related to the first one – growth, investment and financing in various sectors of environment, social and governance. Countries with stable governance, inclusive social systems will be able to reach back to stable economy more effectively.
ESG (environment, social, governance) related funds reached new heights in 2020, despite pandemic. Environment action and climate crisis were the world’s centrestage as countries came forward and together to raise relief packages for climate rescue.
2021 will be governed by quality of relief available and domestic and international economy revival. The funds and investment for green sectors will be the overriding points for the year.
The third and most defining and important trend for 2021 will be geoeconomics competition among nations. The constant attempts to insulate own supply chains and diversify own interests through indigenous means have amplified during pandemic. The crisis saw no attempts from nations to find a common ground to keep inter-nation trade keep going.
All the three trends would quantify how year 2021 goes along and would govern the performance of all nations individually and together as a block.