Geopolitics

Growing closeness between China & Taliban: US feels it can be a positive thing for Afghanistan’s sake

Taliban delegation consisting of nine senior officials of the militant group recently met China’s foreign minister Wang Yi at coastal city of Tianjan. The Chinese diplomat was seen welcoming Taliban’s co-founder and head of its political commission Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar whole heartedly on Wednesday. The warm welcome by China of the militant group leaders, who are aggravating their offensive in Afghanistan post departure of foreign troops, though is being frowned by the world; USA has called it a hopefully “positive thing”. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that Beijing’s growing interest in Afghanistan can be a good thing for the country.

US and NATO troops are om way to completely withdraw troops from Afghanistan by end of August. This has led to re-emergence of Taliban that is rapidly gaining control of major areas of the country. Wang said that this “marks the failure of the US policy toward Afghanistan”. He also called Taliban “an important military and political force in Afghanistan” and urged the group to progress for peace talks. Taliban too is keen to gain political recognition globally to bolster impact of its victories in Afghanistan.

What does the US think?

United States of America once fiercely resisted any attempts by China to increase its influence in Afghanistan. But now as Biden administration is on verge of complete withdrawal of troops from the country, the priority paradigm has shifted towards avoiding a civil war in Afghanistan. Civil war, at present, seems inevitable with growing Taliban offensive.

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During his recent trip to India, Blinken said about Taliban’s visit to China, “Neighbouring countries of Afghanistan have an interest in the region … but no one has an interest in the region falling into an enduring civil war or the hands of the Taliban.” He added. “If China and other countries are working on that interest, then it’s a positive thing.”

Taliban is said to have gained back control of over half of rural Afghanistan since its offensive onset in May. It has also threatened major cities in the country as well as taken control of lucrative border crossings including borders with Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan.

China’s interests

China shares border with Afghanistan, though only 47 miles long and embedded in Himalayas at 4000 m, covered in snow most of the year. The conditions are averse to transit in this route but China has concerns of Afghanistan becoming base for Uyghur Muslims from western province of Xinjiang in China. Wang said, “East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) … poses a direct threat to China’s national security and territorial integrity. Combating the ETIM is a common responsibility for the international community”.

Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen has confirmed that Baradar has assured China that “the territory of Afghanistan will not be used against security of any country including China.”

Apart from national security, China also has commercial interests aligned with Taliban. Rich mineral reserves of Afghanistan have been point of interest for China since decades.

Ashraf Ghani, president of Afghanistan has urged the international community to challenge Taliban presenting themselves as a future government. “These are not the Taliban of the 20th century … but the manifestation of the nexus between transnational terrorist networks and transnational criminal organisations,” he said.

Geopolitics

The nuclear war between the UK and China

Today, the geopolitical and media battle between the United Kingdom and China adds another chapter to a book that is now constantly updated because London would have decided to cut Beijing out of some nuclear energy projects on British soil. The story resembles that of Huawei for 5G, which last year recorded another sensational turnaround by the British government after developing the super-fast mobile network to the Chinese giant.

“Doubts and security issues” was Boris Johnson’s justification. Now, more or less for the same reasons, China General Nuclear, the nuclear energy company directly linked to the Beijing regime and which is currently involved in various nuclear power plant projects in England, would also end up on the British blocklist.

The “Financial Times” writes, citing government sources for which the executive is looking for alternative ways to find other partners instead of the Chinese. The projects are the Sizewell nuclear power plant in English Suffolk (£ 20 billion plan). And the controversial “Bradwell B” that the Johnson government wants to build in Bradwell-on-Sea, in rural and industrial Essex, one hundred kilometers east of London, on the imposing estuary of the Blackwater River.

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Behind Bradwell B, a nuclear giant as big as ten stadiums at Wembley, there is the Franco-Chinese consortium made up of EDF Energy and the Chinese of China General Nuclear Group (GCN). That is also in charge of the project worth around 20 billion pounds, including a 2000-megawatt plant and two nuclear reactors. Finally, China has also invested significantly in the Hinckley Point C nuclear plant in Somerset.

“There is not a single chance that, for example, the Bradwell project will go ahead,” a government source tells the city newspaper. After what happened to Huawei, the executive can’t give the green light to China’s construction of a new nuclear power plant. Not a recent trend: even in the US and Europe, several countries are trying to break away from Beijing in developing such sensitive infrastructures. That is also the calculation of London to find other international partners and perhaps American companies ready to invest. Indeed, the chill between the UK and China is increasingly evident.

In addition to the Huawei case and this latest nuclear breakthrough, there is a democratic crisis in Hong Kong. London responds hard-nosed to the Chinese offensive with an easy visa program for citizens of the former colony, opening an exodus. Then there is the Xinjiang case and the accusations of crimes against humanity of the British towards Beijing to treat the Muslim minority. Finally, China blacked out the BBC at home after London did the same to Chinese state TV for “disinformation.”

Geopolitics

How four G20 nations’ energy policies are threatening climate

As the countries across world are pledging to protect climate and work towards containing the climate change, there are few whose energy policies are actually working antagonist to this global pledge. Four of the leading G20 nations – China, Brazil, Russia and Australia – have got their energy policies that according to scientists can lead to rise in atmospheric temperatures of up to 5C. A heating of this extent can bring devastation on planet that is already facing havoc in form of uncontrolled wildfires, for instance.

The analysis is made by peer reviewed group Paris Equity Check. The report raises some serious concerns about the probable climate agreements that can take place in Cop26 summit in Glasgow, that is to take place in three months. Cop26 will be one of the largest and most significant climate summits, and will have a key agenda. The summit would push for policies and reforms globally to keep global heating on hold at 1.5C. This would be done by agreement on a global policy to end greenhouse gases emission by 2050.

The world urgently needs a clear and unambiguous commitment to the 1.5 degree goal of the Paris Agreement from all G20 nations.

There is no pathway to this goal without the leadership of the G20. – @antonioguterres

Full statement 👇👇https://t.co/s1cQZa98rF
— UN Spokesperson (@UN_Spokesperson) July 25, 2021

But the continuous use of fossil fuels by China, Russia, Australia and Brazil would mean rise in global temperatures by 5C even if the rest of nations comply to the Cop26 policy. This fact highlights deep rift between ideologies of two different kinds of nations, a danger to the global climate control pledge.

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“Without more ambition from China, Brazil, Russia and Australia, Cop26 will fail to deliver the future our planet needs,” warned Tanya Steele, chief executive at WWF.

The G20 summit was seen as a crucial step walking towards the Cop26 to bring climate change fight to forefront. But the revelation of key countries of G20 being unable to come to a common ground for fighting climate crisis underlines deep rooted problems over ideologies of nations and how far apart they are. This also indicates that Cop26 summit in Scotland is going to be a difficult time to secure a meaningful agreement.

Yann Robiou du Pont, the lead researcher for the Paris Equity Tracker analysis noted, “The research underlines what many of us fear: major economies are simply not doing enough to tackle the climate crisis and, in many cases, G20 countries are leaving us on track [for] a world of more heatwaves, flooding and extreme weather events.”

“Ahead of Cop26, we now need to see action and we owe it to the most vulnerable countries to rally together. Failure to deliver on our commitments is not an option and we must not be found wanting,” said Alok Sharma, president of Cop26.

This month has highlighted the grave impact of climate crisis across the world. Germany has been swept across by deadly floods, similar floods in China and Belgium; massive wildfires burning US and Siberia. The reason has been same in all cases – global warming.

Geopolitics

Xi’s visit to Tibet, the first by a Chinese president in 31 years

Xi Jinping‘s semi-secret trip to Tibet – the first of a Chinese president in thirty-one years – began on Wednesday. Still, only yesterday did the official Xinhua news agency released the news. The New Helmsman declaration seems to seal the normality of an autonomous province that continues to dream of independence in the enclosure of the houses and temples perched on the roof of the world. But for Xi, according to Xinhua, the full implementation of the guidelines of the Communist Party of China is the key to governing Tibet in a new era and to write a recent episode of lasting stability and high-quality expansion for the region. Xi remarked that without the CCP, there would have been neither the new China nor the new Tibet. Not only that: the policies of the CCP “are completely correct.” Therefore, it is useless to expect changes in the future because the visit is linked to a highly symbolic moment, experienced by Chinese and Tibetans in a radically opposite way: the 70th anniversary of the “peaceful liberation of Tibet.” In 1951 it was Mao’s armies that climbed the Himalayas to “bring back to the Motherland” that riotous region that had gained independence in the aftermath of the fall of the Qing Dynasty (1912), playing above all on the rivalries of the Western Powers engaged in Great Asian game.

Xi went to Tibet for the first time since 2013. With his sudden arrival, he wanted to underline the “indissoluble bond” between the Autonomous Region and China, with Beijing as the sole holder of its future chances. So, Xi first inspected, in Nyingchi, the works of the new high-speed railway line destined to unite Tibet with the Sichuan, the province that “leans” on the foothills of the plateau and is the natural gateway to the rest of the country.

The next day, by train, the president arrived in Lhasa, the provincial capital. Next to him, Liu He, adviser for the economy, and Zhang Youxia, vice president of the Military Commission, a way to underline the antithetical paths that Tibet could take: the development supported by the central government, or even tighter military control. In Lhasa, the president made a walk along the commercial street overlooking the Potala above, the palace from where the successive reincarnations of the Dalai Lama ruled for centuries, until the exit of the last, Tenzin Gyatso, fourteenth in the line and current holy leader of the Tibetans, refugee since 1959 in India. Xi was accepted and greeted with repeated bellows of “good health.” But the central artery of the old city in the videos that circulated did not appear very crowded. Tibet remains a land of secrets and possiblewonders.

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Geopolitics

Which countries impose vaccination against Covid?

The first category to which vaccination has been imposed, in many countries, are doctors and workers in hospitals, nursing, and retirement homes. In France, for example, they are obliged. In Australia, the obligation applies only to those who work in contact with the elderly, in retirement homes, and so in Greece, where, however, all health personnel must be vaccinated by September; from October, the staff of retirement homes in the United Kingdom will also have to be.

Some governments impose an obligation on those who work: those who do not get vaccinated cannot work. It happens in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, both in public and in the private sector. In Russia, only public workers have no choice: they can get vaccinated until August 15. The same in the Fiji Islands. In Canada, it is only required of some public officials in Kazakhstan to work in groups of more than 20 people. On the other hand, the Czech Republic has announced that vaccination will be mandatory for students from September.

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In France, from July 21, the health pass – proof of a double vaccination, or a negative molecular test is done in the previous 48 hours or a certificate of recovery from Covid – is essential to enter cinemas, theaters, museums, discos, festivals. And for any event involving more than 50 people. The same line in Greece: only vaccinated customers are allowed inside bars, cinemas, theaters, and other enclosed spaces.

From July 26, the decree requiring the pass for travel, restaurants, sports, and cinema should come into force in Italy. In the United Kingdom, from September, discos and crowded places will be open only to those with green passes. From September, it is estimated that all adults in the country will have had a chance to get vaccinated. In a speech addressed to the youngest, among whom hesitation is highest, Boris Johnson warned that “many of life’s most important pleasures and occasions will be open only to those who get vaccinated.” But a similar measure failed in Moscow: Mayor Sergei Sobyanin had imposed a green pass for all club patrons, but the lack of confidence in the vaccine of Muscovites has dramatically reduced the number. A blow to the exhibitors, who have obtained the withdrawal of the standard. In Russia, as in the United States, the local authorities can introduce the obligation. So, for example, in San Francisco, 35,000 public employees will have to get vaccinated, and more and more companies in the US, thanks to the freedom to do so, link their intake to the vaccine.

Mandatory and that’s it, for all adults: this has been the line since February in Indonesia, where the fine is five million rupees (375 euros); in Turkmenistan; in Tajikistan. A few days ago, Emmanuel Macron announced the introduction of the pass to the French. He also said that according to how the situation will evolve, France would consider obliging all adults to the vaccine. The opposite position was taken almost immediately afterward by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In a speech at the Robert Koch Institut, in which she admitted that the quota of vaccinated people was “far” from the safety threshold, she added, however, that “there are no plans to make the vaccine mandatory,” and that doing so would undermine trust. of citizens. “Weprefer to earnit with good communication.”

Geopolitics

Pegasus project: Amnesty backs off, the list of 50,000 numbers does not exist

Amnesty International changed its allegations after they said they have a list of victims. Amnesty International has reportedly said that they have never claimed the list of phone numbers released recently were explicitly targeted by Israeli company NSO. Instead, the human rights organization stressed that the list released only suggests that they are the kind of people NSO’s clients might like to spy.

Amnesty issued a new statement in response to false allegations on social media and inaccurate media stories about the Pegasus Project. It clarified that the Human Rights defenders “categorically stand by the findings of the Pegasus Project and that the data is irrefutably linked to potential targets of NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware.”

Amnesty International categorically stands by the findings of the Pegasus Project, and that the data is irrefutably linked to potential targets of NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware. https://t.co/usImSFOYBc
— Amnesty Tech (@AmnestyTech) July 22, 2021

It stressed that the false rumors being pushed on social media aim “to distract from the widespread unlawful targeting of journalists, activists, and others that the Pegasus Project has revealed.” The list of numbers is at the center of a controversy that erupted after an investigation conducted by Paris-based organization Forbidden Stories and Amnesty International found more than 50,000 phone numbers.

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They said the list includes the phone numbers of politicians, journalists, and activists, who have been potential surveillance targets through Pegasus software of Israeli surveillance company NSO Group.

But the new statement highlights the misleading and false claims in the investigation about NSO. The numbers seem to be just an analyst or an opinion. There is nothing related to any technical shreds of evidence regarding NSO and its Pegasus Program.

The NSO Group has called the reports “fabricated.” “It is not an NSO list, and it never was – it is fabricated information. It is not a list of targets or potential targets of NSO’s customers. That is all baseless,” NSO spokesperson Ariella Ben replied. Amnesty published in its new statement requires a judiciary and a lawsuit against who is behind the false report in Forbidden stories and its media consortium.

Geopolitics

Global geopolitical has many times cast an overshadow on the Olympics

Aside from domestic politics, global geopolitics has also consistently cast an over shadow on the Olympics. After Japan’s defeat in World War II, for the first time, Japan had hosted the Olympic Games in 1964, announcing its return to the world stage.

This time Japan takes the Games back to Asia 13 years after China organizing it in 2008. Given the competition for impact in the Asia-Pacific region, excellent organizing of the Games is vital for Japanese confidence and uplifting of its deteriorating economy.

As the world spindles under the second and third waves of the pandemic, public opinion in the survey also was divided over the postponement of the 2021 Summer Olympics and Paralympics. However, Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has taken the final decision to host the Olympics.

The Tokyo 2020 Games are being played in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. This was PM Shinzo Abe’s wild card as he played a crucial role in bringing the Olympics to Tokyo. He also hoped to circumvent recession and fight the early signs of economic fatigue due to the pandemic.

The Olympics were hindered by two World Wars, pushed through Cold War, tossed in a Spanish Flu and coronavirus that deferred the games in 2020.

However, the IOC and Abe had to listen to the World Health Organization and postpone Olympics from 2020 to 2021. Yoshihide Suga became Japan’s new PM as Abe resigned from office.

@DrTedros address to the International @Olympics Committee. #Tokyo2020 #AGoal4All https://t.co/v47lhan0EV
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) July 21, 2021

Facilitating the Olympics has been about countries national pride. Two public surveys were completed in Tokyo by national broadcaster NHK, and the conservative broadsheet Yomiuri Shimbun revealed that PM Yoshihide Suga’s Cabinet remained at a record lowest in their administration.

Both the public opinion polls were divided over the arrival of spectators at the Olympic Games. Four out of 10 expressed their desire to scrap the Olympics.

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Around three out of 10 revealed to NHK that they were opposed to holding the Games. 17% favored spectators coming to enjoy the games, and approximately 74% said they would prefer watching the Olympics on TV.

Geopolitics

Pegasus project and the alarm for free information

The scenario emerging from the Pegasus Project investigation arouses clamor and concern in international public opinion; there are fears that new control tools are available to illiberal regimes and have already been widely used to spy on and crackdown on dissidents and opponents. On the other hand, it is worthy of attention that a partially distinctive form of collaboration between different subjects has been developed to protect freedom of information.

Over 80 journalists from 17 media outlets (including The Washington Post, The Guardian, Le Monde) actively participated in the Pegasus Project, operating in 10 different countries and coordinated by Forbidden Stories, a non-profit organization based in Paris. The Pegasus Project was born four years ago to support journalists persecuted by authoritarian regimes. Amnesty International also made a decisive contribution to the investigation by identifying traces of spyware in mobile phones.

The survey-based was on 50,000 telephone numbers, including those of journalists, activists, politicians. From the analysis of this large sample of users, it would appear that the Pegasus spyware, produced and marketed by the Israeli company NSO Group was used to facilitate violations of human rights and to control free information. Before providing its services to a particular country, the company must receive authorization from the Israeli government. Still, it would appear that, once the software is delivered, the NSO has limited control over its actual use.

According to the ongoing investigation, possible customers of the NSO Group would result in 11 states, some of which were already considered countries where there were restrictions on freedom of expression: Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, India, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Mexico, Rwanda, Togo, and Hungary. In the list of victims subjected to international espionage, there would also be people linked to the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, killed in 2018 in circumstances that suggest the involvement of the Saudi regime.

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The NSO rejects the accusations and claims to carry out the checks required to avoid improper use of its products to combat crime and terrorism. Among those suspected of having improperly used Pegasus, a country like Hungary also involves the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen expressed her concern: “What we have been able to read so far has yet to be verified, but if it were confirmed, it would be unacceptable.”

Meanwhile, the Paris Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation in France to ascertain whether there have been violations against French citizens using the Pegasus spyware produced by the Israeli NSO Group and sold to governments and armies in different world areas. Verifications also by the EU, while the Hungarian press is attacking the government of Viktor Orban: “He had 300 people spied in the country”. The Paris prosecutor’s investigation investigates ten offenses, including violation of privacy, interception of correspondence, fraudulent access to a computer system, and criminal association. The Mediapart website made the complaint, the famous investigation platform of which two journalists, Edwy Plenel and LénaigBredoux, were allegedly spied on by the Moroccan secret services. That should be followed by a similar denunciation by the weekly Le Canard Enchaîné, in defense of former collaborator Dominique Simmonnot.

Geopolitics

Biden all set to host Jordan’s King

US President Joe Biden is all set to host Jordan’s King Abdullah on Monday – what is said to be the first of his three meetings with leaders from the Middle East.

Jordan is a key US ally in the somewhat volatile region.

It is termed as a turn of fortune for the 59-year-old monarch – Jordan’s King Abdullah II – as he has been dealing with a series of external and domestic crises.

Abdullah faced down a challenge to his authority in April from his cousin, Prince Hamza. He will have his first Oval Office talks with President Biden since the latter took power in January.

The king has ruled Jordan for the past 21 years but he shared a difficult relationship with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, who he believed was leaving his country out from regional developments.

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Abdullah, on Tuesday, will have a working breakfast with Vice President Kamala Harris at the vice president’s residence. He will also meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the State Department.

Abdullah enjoys a unique role in the Middle East – seen by US officials as a moderate and pragmatic administrator who can play a mediating role.

His visit to the White House is to be followed on July 26 by the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi. On the other hand, the US and Israeli officials are at work on scheduling a meeting between Biden and new Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett soon.

In 2017, the Monarch told Trump that his decision to recognise Israel as the capital of Israel is going to have “dangerous consequences on the stability and security of the region” – according to a palace statement.

That was, however, dismissed by Trump.

Although Jordan has full relations with Israel since 1994, the king opposed the deals that the Trump administration brokered in 2020.

Geopolitics

Europe needs urgent action on climate change

It has already been stated by several members of the German government, the most recent by the Minister of the Interior, Horst Seehofer. Furthermore, the European Union again sounds the alarm on the emergency linked to climate change, after the devastating floods that have already caused over 100 victims and thousands missing in northern Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.

The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, at a press conference in Dublin, said that science tells us that we see more extreme weather phenomena with climate change, which last longer. The intensity and duration of these events are a clear indication “of the fact that they are favored by global warming.

Words that want to highlight again what should be the way forward for all European states, that of a massive energy transition that limits pollution and, consequently, global warming at the root of the current climate crisis. These “horrific events show that action is urgent,” said the head of the Berlaymont Building, adding that she had “activated the mechanisms to help the Member States” affected by the floods.

French President Emmanuel Macron wrote on Twitter that “my thoughts go out to the victims of the rains that hit Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands hard. France stands in solidarity in this test. Our support is already deployed in Belgium. It will be sent wherever it is useful”.

Mes pensées vont aux victimes des intempéries qui touchent durement l'Allemagne, la Belgique, le Luxembourg et les Pays-Bas. La France est solidaire dans cette épreuve. Notre soutien est déjà déployé en Belgique. Il le sera partout où il sera utile.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) July 16, 2021

The toll of the disaster in Germany is dramatic, first of all in human lives: at least 141 victims and a thousand injured. In Belgium, too, there are 28 deaths and 103 people, of whom there is no news after the catastrophe caused by the rain. Bulletins constantly updated: these numbers, it is warned, will rise again. In the landscape devastated by the unstoppable force of water and mud, the material damage, priceless for now, is enormous.

Floods destroyed houses, shops, cars, and entire communities shocked, in their villages transfigured within hours. “Your fate rips our hearts out of our chests,” said the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, interpreting the country’s general dismay for too many fellow citizens who, in this flood of unprecedented magnitude, did not survive. In Germany, 23,000 people mobilized in the flood regions and firefighters, police, and the TechnischeHilfswerk. In addition, the army intervened with 900 soldiers and their tanks to face the disaster. All the rescuers engaged in the operations are struggling tirelessly to help the population.