Uttara J Malhotra

China seems to be making up its mind to take control of its dwindling power situation, by moving ahead to claim ownership of Taiwan’s oil island. While the People’s Republic of China has been claiming its ownership over this tiny island, the island itself has an autonomous democratic government and does not wish to be considered anywhere a part of China.

For that reason, it has been increasingly spreading its wings and initiating business with some of the biggest Western powers like the US. This has not gone well with China over the years; more so after the Covid-19 led slowdown in the economy and the US led sanctions has crippled its growth.

Taiwan has been readying itself with military power as it has spent almost $25 billion between the years 2007-2018, to purchase the necessary know how. All of its business has been done through the US itself. China now feels compelled to get back into the game and is now readying to claim control over Taiwan’s oil reserves.

In July, it was confirmed that Taiwan’s forces have had no choice but to ready themselves of a possible attack from China, as the latter had started to encircle the Republic of China aka Taiwan with ships and aircrafts. All this seems to be China’s attempt to capture Tungsha (or, in Western parlance, Pratas islands).  On the flip side, China is also trying to push India back of the Indian Ocean. But it did not anticipate the economic pressure that India could respond back with, now putting Beijing in a precarious position to do just about anything to continue to show its supremacy amongst the nations of the world.

The Tungsha comprises one island, two coral reefs and two banks. It’s a cluster of blessings for Taiwan. Of these is also the Pratas Island, the only part of the group constantly above water, has an airfield but is not significantly (and certainly not sufficiently) militarized by the ROC. China has had intentions of starting military exercises on this piece and eventually claims it as a base to keep control over Taiwan.

Once the control is established, Chinas believes it can arm twist other smaller nations to its will. On its agenda is Philippines and then other ASEAN states. According to Gregory R. Copley, a research scholar and writer, “It would serve as a continuation of a “salami strategy” — one slice at a time — of taking land and sea territory away and strategic maneuvering room from the ROC, and pushing the U.S./West away from the Chinese mainland. There are some 13 significant islands and island chains, including Taiwan itself, and D?ngsh?, which comprise the ROC.” Political analysts believe China is in a blind spot and will do something desperate to claim its fame back. Taiwan will have to be on red alert.

Greece and Turkey seemed to have literally gone on war, over an oil tanker. This has been confirmed by the local news channels from both countries. Strangely, a Turkish naval expedition to escort oil-drilling vessel Oruç Reis in the Aegean Sea off the Greek island of Kastellórizo did not go well with the NATO partner country Greece.

Turkey’s contingent comprised air and sea support, something that was not liked by Greece at all. From one side, as Turkey readied a group of 18 Turkish warships to escort the vessel into waters, air support was intercepted by Greek jets in Greek airspace near Kastellórizo.

According to Greece, Turkey was invading the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Additionally, Greek forces seemed to have also detected Turkish drones and Special Forces units operating in the area.  While Turkey might have been fully prepared to guard its oil exploration exercise to go on well, it did not anticipate that the move might threaten a NATO member.

Greece seems to have jumped the gun, by claiming that move of Turkish contingent towards its earmarked land, while the latter said that Greece has no bases to claim its ownership over the remote islands far from its own mainland, most notably Kastellórizo.  As 12 Turkish warships were reportedly set to sail with the Oruç Reis, the Greek government might have over-reacted by keeping its entire armed forces on full alert. It is said to have even recalled Greek Chief of Defense Staff General Konstantinos Floros from Cyprus, and preparing to dispatch a Greek flotilla against the Turkish vessels.

There is evident tension around the Mediterranean sea. The most obvious reason is the Kastellórizo is a part of the eastern Mediterranean where there have been recent discover of huge underwater gas reserves. Everyone wants a piece of this pie. But deployment of troops amounts to calling for war, which is not something the international fraternity has been happy about. Taking the Greek side is France and somewhat the US too, that has asked Turkey to take it easy and understand that indeed Kastellórizo is ‘disputed land’. Turkey on its part may have no intentions of crossing the line, but the general mistrust amongst the NATO partners goes back to its notorious moves in Libya and Yemen speak for itself.

With China owning up the fresh river water access in Tibet, it has played the most important card in the deck. By controlling access to where India’s biggest reserve for fresh water lies, it has got the country by its throat. It is an invisible control but a real one.  Technically China is controlling the seven most important rivers for India and more than 7 countries around Tibet. These include Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Yangtze and Mekong. 

According to official statistics, an estimated 718 billion cubic meters of surface water flows out of the Tibetan plateau and the Chinese-administered regions of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia to neighbouring countries each year.

The prominent eight or more rivers also cater to the watering needs of countries like Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.

China has never been transparent in its communication with India. Even now, there is no clear indication from the administration over their retreat from the Line of Actual Control (LAC).  Political analysts have reasons to believe that China could use its control over the rivers to create a strong hold on India’s economy.

There have been several indicators for this. For one, it has been systematically making use of the water to up its hydropower projects. It has promised the same to Pakistan when it has plans to build supporting dams. The water resource remains the same.

China has already started claiming control over the Brahmaputra river. It has started building a dam which could also mean that they have access to the flow of the river. There are already indications of altering the route of the water flow even before it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh.

In May, after a stand-off between the forces India and China, the latter blocked the flow of the Galwan River, a tributary of the Indus which originates in Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin area. It conveniently altered the natural course of the river to prevent it from entering India.

It has done it now and it will not flinch at doing it again. Additionally, China is also known to have already blocked the flow of the Xiabuqu river, one of Brahmaputra’s Tibetan tributaries, for the Lalho hydel project.

China does not share very good business or manufacturing practices. Environmental protection has never been high on its agenda. There also lies the danger of the country wishing to leave most of the rivers polluted, rendering them unfit for consumption by the vast Indian population. As an agri-nation, India depends heavily on its natural water resources. An instance of such misuse of natural resources has happened in 2008 itself. Last but not the least; China has access to valuable data that can help manage floods and fluctuations downstream. India and China have signed two pacts since 2008 on data sharing for the Sutlej and Brahmaputra in order to better manage the shared watercourses. While these agreements have had a positive effect on water management, and helped pre-empt and control flooding, this dependence can also be exploited by withholding hydrological data accessible only to the upper riparian state.