The American Fed revised its 2020 US GDP estimates upwards this evening. While in June, due to COVID, the central bank expected a 6.5% collapse, now that figure has been corrected to -3.7%. Always a sharp decline, in short, but much less marked than expected at the beginning of the summer. The fed also predicts an unemployment rate of 7.6% and an inflation of 1.2%.
“The recovery has been faster than expected,” said President Jerome Powell. For 2021, the rebound in GDP is estimated between 3,6 and 4,7%, less than the 4,5-6,0% expected in June. Instead, we will have to wait until 2023 to see unemployment return to 4%. The central bank also announced that it leaves rates close to zero until maximum employment will be reached. The economic recovery will depend significantly on the course of the virus, the experts underline.
The wait for the 2020 US presidential election has a significant impact on the performance of the US economy and the value of the dollar. According to the latest poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, the US President Donald Trump is one percentage point ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Biden: 47% to 46%.Although it is statistically insignificant, it is the first time that the head of the White House is in the lead. According to the survey, 3% of respondents prefer another candidate, while 4% are undecided.
In the past two weeks, the fight has gotten tighter between the two White House contenders: Biden was two percentage points ahead last week, while for the first time in two and a half months, Trump had exceeded 45% in the indications of the vote.The new measurement gives the head of the White House with 80% of the support of Republican voters and nine points ahead among voters not affiliated with either party. Biden also enjoys 80% support from Democratic voters. It also appears that the president is strengthening his position among the Hispanic electorate.
Contributing to Donald Trump’s recovery, his change of communication on the COVID-19 crisis, and recent moves in foreign policy. The Abraham agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, followed by Bahrain and soon by five other Arab states, has given Trump the role of international mediator, as well as the nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.This will re-inject investor confidence and pump millions of dollars into the White House. Trump is shown to have succeeded in what his predecessors did not.