UAE Set to Lead GCC in 2025 with 4.8% GDP Growth, Says IMF
The latest IMF Regional Economic Outlook predicts that the United Arab Emirates will have the highest GDP growth in the Gulf region reaching 4.8% in 2025. The report has highlighted the economic stability of the UAE despite the world insecurity conditions, the diversification of the growth strategy, strong fiscal policy and oil production recovery. With the world markets negotiating geopolitics, climate shocks, and reduced financial environments, the UAEs balanced blend of oil and non-oil industry growth makes it one of the primary drivers of growth in the Middle East – and a critical partner in the trade and investment connectivity of Asia.
After a resilient start to the year, the global economy is showing signs of a moderate slowdown. Our latest World Economic Outlook projects global growth to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.
— IMF (@IMFNews) October 21, 2025
UAE 2025 Growth Predictions: Diversification and Stability Powerhouse
The IMF predicts that the UAE will grow at a rate of 4.8 percent in 2025, and increase to about 5 percent in 2026, which means the economy will be the highest growing economy in the GCC countries. This projection represents the merger of the oil and non-oil sectors.
The recovery in the oil production due to the lifting of OPEC+ restrictions as well as positive market conditions in the hydrocarbons give a firm foundation to develop on. Nevertheless, the true force is in the diversification of the UAE strategy, as in the tourism industry, logistics, financial services, manufacturing and real estate.
Specifically, Abu Dhabi is projected to have a growth rate of about 6% and will be propelled by oil recovery and the booming services industries, with Dubai projected to have an annual growth of 3.4% and will be boosted by the trade industry, hospitality industry and the technology industry.
According to the IMF, macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline are the most important strengths of the UAE. The policies of the country cushion it against global headwinds given that the inflation rate is expected to be 1.6% in 2025 and healthy fiscal buffers. This strengthens investor confidence and long term growth.
To regional and international partners, especially in the Asian region, the growth of the UAE is an enticing indicator of the existence of more opportunities in trade and investment in logistics, finance, and green innovation.
The IMF has developed a tool to aid in forecasting the effects of global warming; it is the IMF global warming rating tool, which involves defining what constitutes the perfect environment and measuring it against the current environment of any specific nation.<|human|>The IMF has come up with a tool to help in predicting the impacts of global warming and this is the IMF global warming rating tool, which in the tool involves determining the ideal environment and comparing it with the present environment of any given country.
Resilience in the Face of Global Uncertainty
The 2025 forecast of the IMF of the MENAP region indicates varying growth rates within the region, with the UAE in the lead at 4.8, and Yemen experiencing a recession. There is also the expectation of strong performances by Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, which are indicators of consistent recovery and an economically strong country.
In addition to the UAE, the MENA region has been resilient in an unstable world. Increased oil production and increased demand within the country led to an upgrading of the IMF growth outlook in the MENA to 3.2% in 2025, compared to a 2.1% growth in 2024.
Among the oil exporters, it is projected that growth will be at 3 percent in 2025, and 3.4 percent in 2026, whereas the oil importing economies will grow by 3.5 percent next year, owing to the low oil prices, remittances, and tourism.
Still, amid this optimistic view, the IMF warns that there are still risks, among them the geopolitical tensions, constraining global liquidity, and climate-related upheavals. The only way to maintain growth will be through policy changes aimed at opening up to diversification, innovation and fiscal prudence.
The question that policy makers face is how to bring the short term resiliency in the region into a long term inclusive growth which the IMF Director Dr. Jihad Azour highlighted during a Dubai press interview.
