Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: The Cost of Years of Concessions
Saudi Arabia has been claiming for years that its involvement in Yemen’s Houthis was a means for it to defuse violence and protect its borders. But as the conflict moves to a new stage of its development, an increasingly awkward question is being asked throughout the region now: did Riyadh’s continued negotiations, ceasefires and political appeasements contribute to turning the Houthis into one of Yemen’s most powerful political and military forces?
The campaign against the movement has turned into a succession of understandings, which critics claim have changed the power balance in Yemen. Saudi Arabia was looking for a short-term de-escalation, but its opponents argue that the long-term implications could be far more serious than Yemen, impacting the security of the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea.
Saudi – Houthis Relations: The Evolution of Engagement
Saudi Arabia’s ties with the Houthis have dramatically changed throughout the conflict. Military actions, which were supposed to disarm the group, took a gradual turn for the better and were later followed by negotiations, prisoner exchanges, ceasefires and diplomatic contacts to lower hostilities.
The next set of negotiations was called stability negotiations. Periods of relative calm were brought into the southern border of Saudi Arabia by temporary truces that reduced tensions. But critics doubt that they were paid for at a high cost. However, successive concessions failed to result in a long-term political settlement, they say, but instead enabled the Houthis to consolidate their control over territory, reinforce administrative structures, and consolidate their influence in Yemen.
The main bone of contention against Riyadh is not just that it negotiated with the Houthis, but it did so again and again without gaining any substantial assurances to maintain the status quo in Yemen.
The Price of Short-Term De-escalation
There can be strategic costs to finding immediate calm. In Yemen’s instance, the critics say, Saudi Arabia’s short-term security goals led it to underestimate the long-term consequences of supporting an armed group that was well organised.
The phase of de-escalation without doubt minimised violence in some parts of the country, but it also allowed Houthis to gain time for strengthening their military force and political power. Naysayers say that successive pacts could have entrenched its role as the leading player in northern Yemen.
This brings up a challenging and important issue: Was the Saudi effort for a short-term fix the down payment for a new enemy that they thought they were fighting?
Many observers feel this is not just a personal matter and that the overall spoken term is not sufficient. They say all the concessions have changed the political dynamics, including the balance of power, away from Yemen’s internationally recognised institutions and towards a movement that still has more and more people joining it.
From Armed Movement to Power Centre
The Houthis are probably one of the groups that have changed most in the modern Middle East. The group started as an anti-government uprising that has grown into one of Yemen’s strongest political and military forces.
Currently, the Houthis exercise considerable control over the affairs of various parts of the country, have formidable military strength, and influence in shaping the future of Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s political involvement in the movement has been blamed by critics in some way, directly or indirectly, for this power consolidation.
This is what is now being debated: was the Houthis negotiation the legitimisation of the Houthis without providing a forum for accountability and preventing further growth? If diplomacy were supposed to create balance, it is true that many say that it has created imbalances.
The Weakening of Yemen’s Political Balance
Yemen’s political reality was divided as the Houthis consolidated their power. The national government and other political players have had difficulty staying in control of the situation, due to a number of changing alliances and realities on the ground.
Saudi Arabia’s engagement is seen as undermining the chances of a balanced political resolution, as one actor is given more importance than the others. The outcome, they warn, is a political landscape in which groups have highly unequal power.
But no substantial safeguards have been put in place, and there are fears that new talks will further entrench the imbalance, further complicating the task of making peace a reality.
The Red Sea Security Challenge
Consolidation by the Houthis is no Yemen-only issue. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait continue to be one of the world’s most vital trade arteries, transporting energy resources and commodities between continents.
With the growth of Houthis’ capabilities, the concern about maritime security has increased. The impact on shipping routes and on global trade has only just been revealed as the result of the possibility of an increasingly powerful armed player gaining control close to one of the world’s most strategic waterways.
Critics have raised doubts over whether Saudi Arabia properly weighed these risks in its negotiations with the Houthis, a group it has been making successive understandings with. The geopolitical cost of what seemed at the time like compromises.The geopolitical repercussions of what looked like compromises at the time but have proved costly for regional economies and global trade.
A Growing Threat to Gulf Security
The only question that appears to be left to ponder is this one: Is Yemen policy a policy of short-term de-escalation that has brought long-term instability?
Riyadh’s efforts at creating a political landscape that has given the Houthis unprecedented strength have come under increased pressure from their own unintended effects. The consolidation of the movement gives rise to serious concerns regarding regional deterrence, Gulf security and the future architecture of the Middle East.
While tensions may have been lowered in the short term, critics say years of negotiations led to the empowerment of a force of influence that now extends beyond Yemen. One of the greatest questions hanging over the region today is whether that was a contributing factor to achieving peace in Saudi Arabia or a delay of a more significant conflict.
