Will Turkey accept Finland in NATO, and block Sweden?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – following a series of recent protests in Stockholm, during which a copy of the Quran was burned and a Kurdish support group hung an effigy of Erdogan from a lamp-post – has signalled that Ankara could accept Finland into NATO before taking any action on the membership of Sweden.

“We may deliver Finland a different message and Sweden would be shocked when they see our message. But Finland should not make the same mistake Sweden did,” Erdogan announced Sunday. The speech comes just days after Ankara suspended NATO accession talks with the two countries after the controversial protests, which Swedish officials have condemned, but are also defending the country’s free speech laws.

The two Nordic nations applied to join the military alliance after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine on 24 February, dropping their longstanding military nonalignment.

As Turkey is already a member, it can block another country from joining, as every member of the 30-nation alliance needs to agree before a new member can be admitted.

So far, Turkey and Hungary are the only countries yet to approve the membership. The Hungarian parliament is expected to approve the bids in February, Al-Jazeera reported.

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In addition to the recent demonstrations in Stockholm, Erdogan has also criticised Sweden’s refusal to extradite scores of people allegedly linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – which is regarded as a terrorist group by Turkey, the US, and the EU – and a failed 2016 coup attempt.

Compared to neighbouring Finland, Sweden has a larger Kurdish diaspora. Turkey has urged Sweden to distance itself from the PKK. In response, Sweden has approved a constitutional amendment that allows it to create tougher anti-terror laws demanded by Turkey. The two Nordic neighbours have also lifted bans on the sale of military equipment to Turkey.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto has called for a pause in talks about joining NATO to allow the “dust to settle” on recent events, adding the two countries would join the alliance together, appearing to backtrack on his previous suggestion that Finland could be forced to join without its neighbour.

Erdogan is facing an election in May. Haavisto has suggested the “pressure” of the looming election has caused discussions to become “heated” within Turkey.