A little over a month after the presidential election, the pair Biden-Harris remain ahead of Donald Trump and Mike Pence in the polls. According to the latest survey, the Democratic ticket collects 53% of the votes against 43% of the opponents. Two conventions, the coronavirus numbers continue to rise, the economic chaos, the racial riots were not enough, and not even the recent appointment of an ultra-conservative judge to the Supreme Court. In America more divided than ever, polls say, nobody changes ideas.
The latest survey, made by Washington Post-ABC News, continues to record Democratic candidate for the White House Joe Biden firmly ahead of incumbent President Donald Trump. The first detaches his opponent by 10 points 53 to 43 among the registered voters, those who certainly intend to vote. Fork that does not change even among the likely voters where Biden dominates 54 to 44.
Attention: the margin reduced to six points among probable voters, from 49% to 43%, and among those registered – where it even goes from 47% to 41% – when there are also third-party names on the ballot, such as those Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen and Green candidate Howie Hawkins. Parties that are not present everywhere. That can prove to be particularly insidious in uncertain states and therefore more at risk, where elections will be won by a handful of votes.
Trump continues not to convince the women of the suburbs, the ones who will make a difference in the current state of the race. If Trump likes 55 to 42 male voters, Biden has a more advantage among women: where he wins even 65 to 34. With the difference that if Trump’s advantage among men is more or less the same as in 2016, when opposed Hillary Clinton, Biden’s advantage among women is even double that of Clinton then.
So, is Biden winning? In America, it is not the popular vote that makes the president, but the number of constituencies that are obtained. In uncertain states, the fork narrows, the challenge remains tight in Florida and Arizona, while Biden has a slight advantage in Wisconsin and a larger one in Minnesota. A sign, however, of the president competitiveness.
Donald Trump continues to fuel tensions, repeating that “he cannot guarantee a peaceful transition of powers.” The New York Times reports that the Pentagon fears will be drawn into the political confrontation. The president could contest the results, perhaps in some key states, sparking protests and street riots. At that point, Trump could order the military to intervene. The commanders of the Armed Forces, however, would not accept and would resign rather than mobilize the soldiers against the demonstrators
It is good to clarify that we are talking about indiscretions and hypotheses. In Washington, the Republicans themselves appear bewildered. The day before yesterday, all conservatives voted on the motion presented to the Senate by Democrat Joe Manchin, which warns the president to “engage in behaviour that subvert the will of the people.”