Holiday Shopping 2026: How American Consumers Are Changing Their Spending Habits
Ever stood in a checkout line, done some quick mental math, and quietly put one item back? Plenty of Americans are doing exactly that this season. They aren’t skipping the holidays. They’re just getting pickier about where the money goes.
The Big Picture: A $1 Trillion Season
The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects holiday sales to grow 4.2% this year to $1.013 trillion, even with persistent inflation. Last year’s season grew 3.1% to $972 billion. Deloitte’s survey points the same way. The average household could spend 4% more, reaching $1,654. So shoppers are still opening their wallets. They’re just doing it differently.
How Holiday Shopping 2026 Is Changing
Waiting for the deals
NRF’s October survey found 64% of consumers are likely to wait for Thanksgiving weekend sales to do most of their shopping. Patience is the new strategy.
Online keeps winning
Adobe expects a record $275.1 billion in online spending, up 6.7% from last year. Deloitte says online will make up 55% of retail budgets.
Gifts beat getaways
Deloitte found shoppers expect retail spending to rise 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities falls 4% to $666. Experiences aren’t disappearing, though. 79% of people planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item.
Younger shoppers take over
For the first time in Deloitte’s survey history, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for half of holiday spending. Expect more social media-driven buying and more comparison shopping on phones.
Why It Matters
Not every household feels this season the same way. Higher food and gasoline prices are expected to squeeze moderate- and lower-income consumers, while rising financial wealth keeps supporting higher-income households.
Prices are part of the story too. NRF expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Still, nearly half of the sales growth comes from real consumer spending rather than higher prices. There’s a job angle as well. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers.
What Shoppers Can Do
The takeaway is simple: spend on purpose. Set a budget before the sales start, compare prices, and decide which gifts matter most. Retailers are betting on value-hungry shoppers, so there’s no need to rush.
Explore the Economic Shifts, Global Power Moves, and Workplace Trends Affecting Everyday Life
Will Falling Confidence Affect Holiday Spending?
How Will Fed Rates Affect Your Finances?
Could Russia-China Ties Reshape Western Security?
Which Everyday Costs Could Rise in America?
Why Is Quiet Quitting Reshaping Modern Workplaces?
