What is causing the delay of the Trans-Afghan railway project?

The Trans-Afghan railway was meant to do something Afghanistan has struggled to achieve for decades: turn its geography from a strategic burden into an economic advantage. The proposed railway linking Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan could open a new trade route between landlocked Central Asia and the Arabian Sea. Yet despite years of diplomatic announcements and planning, the project has still not reached the full construction stage. The reason is not simply a lack of money or technical planning. The bigger problem is geopolitics. Growing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, continuing security concerns, questions over financing and rising construction estimates have complicated a project that depends on cooperation between three countries with very different political and economic interests.

 What Is the Trans-Afghan Railway Project?

The Trans-Afghan railway is a proposed rail corridor of roughly 760 kilometres connecting Uzbekistan’s Termez with Pakistan through Afghanistan. The planned route would cross Afghanistan before reaching Pakistan near the Kharlachi border area. Its broader goal is to give Central Asian countries a shorter route to international markets through Pakistani ports. An alternative trade route for Uzbekistan could be provided by the railway in order to get access to the marine markets. Pakistan, meanwhile, would gain a direct rail connection with Central Asian economies. Afghanistan stands to gain perhaps the most strategically. A functioning railway could generate transit revenue, create jobs and encourage the development of logistics hubs and businesses along the route. That potential is why the project has attracted interest across the region.

Security Is Now the Greatest Geopolitical Obstacle

Constructing a railway in Afghanistan is not only about building the train line.

It requires long-term security guarantees. That has become increasingly difficult as relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have deteriorated. Islamabad has repeatedly raised concerns about militant groups allegedly operating from Afghan territory and carrying out attacks inside Pakistan. Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities have rejected such accusations. The dispute has consequences far beyond border security. Any railway connecting the two countries would require safe construction sites, protected workers, functioning border crossings and reliable movement of trains and cargo. Investors would also need confidence that the railway could continue operating even when relations between Kabul and Islamabad become strained. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said in May 2026 that security remained a major issue in its relationship with Afghanistan and called for assurances that Afghan territory would not be used for attacks against Pakistan.

The Project Remains in the Feasibility Stage

One of the biggest misunderstandings surrounding the railway is the difference between political agreements and actual construction. Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed a framework agreement in July 2025 to carry out a joint feasibility study. Uzbekistan subsequently ratified the agreement in February 2026. But that did not mean construction was ready to begin. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry indicated that discussions were still continuing over the terms for appointing a consultant to conduct the joint feasibility study. Afghanistan and Uzbekistan has also been preparing surveys of the proposed route. These are important steps, but they remain preparatory. A railway of this scale requires detailed engineering studies, route surveys, cost assessments, environmental analysis, financing arrangements and agreements covering customs and cross-border security.

The increase in costs increases the uncertainty

There have been some shifts in the financial expectations. Earlier estimates placed the cost of the Trans-Afghan railway at roughly $4.6 billion. More recent estimates have climbed substantially, with Uzbekistan’s deputy transport minister saying in June 2026 that the eventual cost could exceed $7 billion. That is a significant increase for a project already facing difficult terrain and security risks. Higher costs create another problem: finding the money. Governments will need reliable financing, while lenders and private investors are likely to demand stronger guarantees that the railway will be secure and commercially viable. The price of the project should become more apparent once the feasibility studies have been completed.

The Importance of the Railway in Terms of More than Trade

The Trans-Afghan Railway does much more than just carry containers. For the Central Asian states, especially Uzbekistan, the southern route to the coast could diminish their dependency on other routes and allow for exports. For Pakistan, the railroad would help deepen economic links with Central Asia and expand the use of its ports. As for Afghanistan, it would have even wider advantages. Revenue from transit would give a new stream of income for the country, and construction of the railway would stimulate the development of warehouse centers, transportation companies and industrial zones. This project can also have geopolitical aspects. With the success of the railroad, Afghanistan could slowly turn into a transit bridge between Central Asia and South Asia, not only remaining the zone of conflict and war.

The Way Forward for the Trans-Afghan Railway

The success of the Trans-Afghan railway depends on several factors. The three countries need to complete the feasibility work, settle technical details and develop a financing structure capable of supporting what could become a multibillion-dollar project. Most importantly, Afghanistan and Pakistan need a workable security arrangement.

The railway cannot operate effectively if border tensions repeatedly disrupt trade. International investors are also unlikely to commit billions of dollars without confidence that the route will remain secure for years to come. The delay, therefore, does not necessarily mean the project is dead. Its economic appeal remains strong. What has changed is the difficulty of creating the political conditions needed to make that vision commercially viable. For Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the railway could become one of the region’s most important trade corridors. But before the first train crosses Afghanistan, the countries involved must overcome the challenge that no engineering plan can solve on its own: geopolitics.

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