Americas

Utah Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority senate leader and a Republican, said that regardless of the November presidential election result, there will be an orderly and peaceful transition of power on January 20. The statement came a day after President Donald Trump said in a White House news briefing that he would not commit to a peaceful power transfer after elections. He had said “We’ll have to see what happens.” President Trump said that he doesn’t trust the mail-in ballots casting a doubt on authenticity of elections and ballot system.

President Trump currently is lagging behind his presidential challenger Democratic nominee Joe Biden with just 40 days left for the election day, November 3. It is anticipated that this year more than usual Americans will be casting their votes through postal election system due to pandemic.

In the history of United States of America elections every losing presidential candidate has conceded peacefully and graciously. If President Trump goes against the tide should he lose the elections, it would send the country into unprecedented unchartered territory. Something that would put America’s democracy at stake. Joe Biden had earlier suggested that if required military is completely capable to remove Mr. Trump from the White House.

“The winner of the November 3^rd election will be inaugurated on January 20^th. There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792,” Senator Mitch McConnell tweeted on Thursday.

Senator Mitt Romney had a critical response on Wednesday to President Trump’s statement. He tweeted, “Fundamental to democracy is the peaceful transition of power; without that, there is Belarus. Any suggestion that a president might not respect this Constitutional guarantee is both unthinkable and unacceptable.”

Trump’s desperate efforts to replace Supreme Court justice position vacant after demise of Ruth Bader Ginsburg are raising questions and suspicions of president’s willingness of accepting election results. GOP is going against the precedent which it had set in 2016 of not appointing a Supreme Court justice when Obama was in office, citing it to be an election year. Now that it is firm on moving forward with the appointment is controversial. Trump has also said that his interest in appointing his nominee for the post is majorly to have favors on his side if November results go against him and Supreme Court has to step in.  

According to data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, confirmed deaths from coronavirus on Tuesday exceeded 200 thousand. The infected have risen to more than 6 million and eight hundred thousand, with peaks of new cases in North Dakota and Utah. US President Donald Trump has returned to attack China and said it “should have stopped” the virus. Trump then defended his administration’s strategy in the battle against the coronavirus and said that if the United States had not intervened, there could have been 2 million, 2.5 million, or three million deaths.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden instead attacked Trump for handling the emergency: “Due to Donald Trump’s lies and incompetence in the last six months – Biden said Monday – we have witnessed one of the largest losses in American lives in history.” For Biden, managing the crisis required serious presidential leadership, and Trump fell short. According to Biden, Trump “panicked” and “America paid the highest price of any nation in the world.”

China firmly opposes the US accusations made during the General Debate on 22 September, announcing that it will exercise the right of reply following the rules of the UN General Assembly. “The US noise is incompatible with the general atmosphere of the General Assembly. When the international community is going all out to fight COVID-19, the United States is spreading a political virus”. Beijing affirmed in a statement, highlighting thatwhen the international community needs solidarity and cooperation the most, the United States is abusing the UN platform to provoke confrontation and create division.

“When the international community needs a strong UN, the United States is weakening it, the WHO, and other UN bodies, and undermining the authority and effectiveness of the UN. In the past two days, more than 120 leaders, the President of the General Assembly, and Secretary-General of the United Nations made statements in the august hall of the General Assembly”. China added.

Around the world, the number of coronavirus cases continues to rise. John Hopkins University counts indicate that there has been a total of 31,322,314 infections since the start of the pandemic and 946,765 deaths.

Despite the CARES act passed in March 2020, a chunk of American people have still not received their stimulus package. It was all well meaning and promised to them immediately after the American economy started to feel the pressure of the ongoing pandemic led lockdown.

Confirmed by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), there are as many as nine million people still awaiting their cheques. As the third report in a row, this non partisan congressional watchdog has also found key inconsistencies in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance for schools, such as how to screen for the virus and when schools should close down if students or teachers start testing positive for the virus.

“Our report contains 16 new, concrete recommendations where timely and concerted actions by the Administration and Congress can help address the coronavirus crisis. If implemented, those suggestions have the potential to significantly improve the nation’s response to the current pandemic as well as strengthen preparations for future public health emergencies.”

Comptroller General of the United States and head of the GAO

There are glaring oversights that are simply affecting the normal life of simple American people.  As the investigative arm of the Congress, GAO has been examining the implementation of the CARES Act and other pandemic relief actions.

The major problem is that, till date, agencies like the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service that are handling the disbursement of the cheques are not clear on the names and details of the people who are suppose to receive the stimulus package.

This is primarily affecting those Americans who don’t pay taxes and therefore don’t list anywhere on IRS’s database on their annual income. In all probability, many don’t file taxes because their annual income is below the taxable bracket, depriving them of a single time stimulus package of $1200.

The previous reports have given recommendations on the implementation of the CARES Act and Trump administration. According to Gene L. Dodaro, Comptroller General of the United States and head of the GAO, “Our report contains 16 new, concrete recommendations where timely and concerted actions by the Administration and Congress can help address the coronavirus crisis. If implemented, those suggestions have the potential to significantly improve the nation’s response to the current pandemic as well as strengthen preparations for future public health emergencies.”

The report further elaborates that indeed, more than 26 million Americans despite not filing taxes, did receive a payment. This also includes over five million Americans who could benefit because they followed guidance from the IRS and registered online to receive a stimulus check. However, even now, there are still an estimated 8.7 million or more Americans who are eligible but haven’t been identified by the IRS.  

Undeniably, those who have not received the payment would be belonging to the lowest income groups. They are still grappling with unemployment, low food intake amongst youngsters and children stuck at homes, lack of medical aid for those handling life threatening ailments, to name a few problems. What is deplorable is that while Trump administration busies itself ramping up military expenditure for support of allies, it continues to ignore the plight of the common American man back home.  Such glaring misconducts need to be indicative of the need of more responsible and people caring leadership, when the common American castes his or her vote in the November elections.

The legendary Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal and legal legend passed away on Friday, September 18 2020 at 87 from cancer complications, and her demise has flared the power battle between GOP and Democrats with less than 45 days from November 3 presidential elections. As the country mourned the death of legal trailblazer icon and a fierce advocate of equal rights, a political debate fiercely began Friday evening. The battle of Ginsburg’s replacement and the Senate voting has reshaped the stakes of presidential campaign for both Democrats and Republicans. The voters can now be swayed either way. Just less than two months before the presidential elections, death of a prominent Supreme Court justice has provided a thrust to the political debate. This is specifically significant in a year which has been rocked by the coronavirus pandemic and death of George Floyd and many more leading to a widespread Black Lives Matter campaign.

The battle between the two parties over Ginsburg’s replacement has ability to reinforce the electorate – the conservative Republicans who were till now dormant, have been activated with a quest to reshape the court, though weary of President Trump. Furthermore, female voters can be mobilized in millions who seethe Trump for his derogatory comments on women.

“A basic principle of the law – and of everyday fairness – is that we apply rules with consistency, and not based on what’s convenient or advantageous in the moment.”

Former President Barack Obama

Just an hour after Ginsburg’s death announcement, Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell drew the battle lines on Friday night when he said that there will be voting on Trump’s nominee for the justice post. The Kentucky Republican who is up for a reelection has a large probability that GOP might end up losing Senate control. Margin of votes is narrow and McConnell can only lose three Republican votes to get Trump’s nominee for Supreme Court confirmed. President Trump has vowed to fill the seat without delay. He tweeted, “@GOP We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices. We have this obligation, without delay!”

Here is where the battle begins, the colluding and lack of fairness for own interest begins. Back in 2016, the election year, when Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia passed away, Obama’s nomination of Garland was blocked by McConnell on argument that a new appointment can’t be done in election year and that only new President must do it who will be elected by the people. McConnell had said then, “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.” The precedent set by GOP four and a half years ago must be followed even now in all fairness, Democrats argue. Former President Barack Obama said, “A basic principle of the law – and of everyday fairness – is that we apply rules with consistency, and not based on what’s convenient or advantageous in the moment.” McConnell’s statement has been criticized by Democrats and many Republican Senators.

While many GOP senators are in a tight spot facing difficult reelection, defying Ginsburg’s last wish of replacement to be done by newly elected President, can erode them of whatever little support they have left. Maine Senator Susan Collins has defied the replacement in a hurry, citing that the time frame is too close as normally appointing a Supreme Court justice takes 2-3 months at least with all the vetting and background checks.

Former President Bill Clinton who had appointed Ruth Bader Ginsburg as Supreme Court Justice in 1993 has criticized the Republican hasty move of replacement. He said, “Well, of course, its superficially hypocritical call, isn’t it? I mean, Mitch McConnell wouldn’t give President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, a hearing 10 months before the presidential election. And that meant we went a long time with eight judges in the court.” He continued, “This is what they do. I think that, you know, both for Sen. McConnell and President Trump, their first value is power and they’re trying to jam the courts with as many ideological judges as they can.”

Supreme Court nominations are considered to be very important – they are legacy making events for presidents. The fight between GOP and Democrats is fierce over the latest row setting new energy and agenda to the campaigns from both sides before November elections. Democrats have started discussing their options as the senators vow to keep the justice seat empty till next year when a new Senate will be convened and Joe Biden might come into power and occupy the White House.

Speaking at a House committee, FBI chief said, in addition to the threat of domestic extremism, there were active efforts by Russians to influence the elections.

Christopher Wray, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, speaking in front of the House Homeland Security Committee, said that Russia was waging a serious disinformation campaign against presidential candidate Joseph Biden and also trying to undermine confidence in the election process. He said there were “very active efforts by the Russians to influence our election in 2020.” He vowed that the bureau is committed to blocking such efforts.

In addition to denigrating the Democratic candidate who is seen as anti-Russia, the external interference is designed to “sow divisiveness and discord”. This “steady drumbeat of misinformation” is intended to lead Americans into questioning the results. This includes efforts to cast doubts over postal ballots, something President Donald Trump has also been stressing over the past few months. With the pandemic still raging in the country, there is expected to be significant use of postal ballots in the upcoming elections. 

So far, the Trump administration has downplayed talk about Russian interference. The director’s testimony comes after an August 7 warning by the National Counterintelligence and Security Center that Russia, China and Iran were all working on disrupting the November 3 polls. Wray also said that the FBI had opened a new counterintelligence investigation related to China and its efforts to acquire US technology and sensitive information relating to it.

The FBI said it has also been monitoring domestic extremist groups and said it anticipated “racially motivated violent extremism,” mostly from white supremacists. He said the largest “chunk” of investigations centred around far-right white supremacist group who made up a majority of domestic terrorism threats. When asked about the far-left Antifa, he said he condemned violence across the spectrum and ideologies and that the FBI did not view threats in the lens of liberal or conservative politics. The Trump administration however has been arguing that groups like Antifa are responsible for the unrest in American cities, especially during the George Floyd protests. President Trump has wanted the FBI to come down on them more seriously.

The American Fed revised its 2020 US GDP estimates upwards this evening. While in June, due to COVID, the central bank expected a 6.5% collapse, now that figure has been corrected to -3.7%. Always a sharp decline, in short, but much less marked than expected at the beginning of the summer. The fed also predicts an unemployment rate of 7.6% and an inflation of 1.2%.

“The recovery has been faster than expected,” said President Jerome Powell. For 2021, the rebound in GDP is estimated between 3,6 and 4,7%, less than the 4,5-6,0% expected in June. Instead, we will have to wait until 2023 to see unemployment return to 4%. The central bank also announced that it leaves rates close to zero until maximum employment will be reached. The economic recovery will depend significantly on the course of the virus, the experts underline.

The wait for the 2020 US presidential election has a significant impact on the performance of the US economy and the value of the dollar. According to the latest poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, the US President Donald Trump is one percentage point ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Biden: 47% to 46%.Although it is statistically insignificant, it is the first time that the head of the White House is in the lead. According to the survey, 3% of respondents prefer another candidate, while 4% are undecided.

In the past two weeks, the fight has gotten tighter between the two White House contenders: Biden was two percentage points ahead last week, while for the first time in two and a half months, Trump had exceeded 45% in the indications of the vote.The new measurement gives the head of the White House with 80% of the support of Republican voters and nine points ahead among voters not affiliated with either party. Biden also enjoys 80% support from Democratic voters. It also appears that the president is strengthening his position among the Hispanic electorate.

Contributing to Donald Trump’s recovery, his change of communication on the COVID-19 crisis, and recent moves in foreign policy. The Abraham agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, followed by Bahrain and soon by five other Arab states, has given Trump the role of international mediator, as well as the nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.This will re-inject investor confidence and pump millions of dollars into the White House. Trump is shown to have succeeded in what his predecessors did not.

RELATED NEWS: US Presidential Elections 2020: Stable yet volatile – Analysis of countdown to November

Donald Trump’s presidency has not been anything less than a rollercoaster ride. The disruption and turmoil that was witnessed in this presidency tenure has been astonishingly unprecedented. We have seen everything in last four years and more so in the current year – climate change denial, immigrants crisis, Black Lives Matter widespread protests, impeachment, revelations regarding his statements for military and servicemen, worst pandemic and failure to tackle in a responsible way. However, there have been certain ups as well – the initial economic boost and the latest, playing a catalyst in achieving the historic UAE-Israel peace agreement. But one thing that has remained stable has been his support, a remarkable support to that.

When we talk about the approval ratings and polls during presidential race, those of Donald Trump have been swinging narrowly between 40%-45% against his opponent Democratic nominee Joe Biden. This is directly indicative of his support stability and also the lapse in his supporter numbers as compared to Biden. The latest ‘scandalous’ revelation through Bob Woodward book that Trump knew of severity of coronavirus but he chose to told Americans the exact opposite, has the potential to break pattern of his supporters swinging towards him after all has been said and done. This and the remarks he made unapologetically on veterans and servicemen can be the deciding factors in November. But then again, they might not. Such is the unpredictability of 2020 US Presidential Elections.

The stability and volatility of the supporters and opposition of Trump is capable of shifting in transitional fashion. Metrics like peace, demography, cultural change, and economy can be the deciding factors but the manner in which Trump has managed to pull a major chunk of his original anti-Trump voters and also push away life-long Republicans has made the predictability very difficult. It can go either way. The contrasting stands and ideologies of Trump and Biden present a clear choice but also overlapping voters. Trump has managed to strike the right nerve here – by flinching the cultural war he might be actually able to win a share of electorate that are actually more conservative in a racist, sexist and xenophobic category of views. But it can also push away the group of Republicans who are unable to stomach the cultural war and wont shy away from voting a Democrat.

The campaign that began officially after National Conventions too showed Trump trailing behind Biden with lower approval ratings. The controversies and revelations surfacing every day from then on have only been increasing the difference in ratings. Where Biden chose to stay away from physically appearing in Democratic National Convention due to pandemic precautions, Trump’s campaign just waived off any such precautions and went completely off the books with pomp and show and held Republican National Conference at the White House with a large group, no masks and no physical distancing. A super-spreader event!

Even after being criticized heavily for such a reckless move, Trump’s campaign has been consistent with such rallies sanse any precautions. The most drastic one was the indoor rally held in a manufacturing unit in Henderson, Nevada just outside Las Vegas. This will be capsizing another chunk of electorate away from him, which he definitely cannot afford.

Biden on the other hand has been very Presidential and showcased everything what a president must have. From showing empathy to the rising violence and BLM protests across the US to being considerate of public during rallies and following all coronavirus measures. He has consistently maintained an upper hand in the presidential race till now. He is evidently leading in five swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Florida. But the lead is not large enough to guarantee a win for Biden in November. The swing states have potential and tendency to lean to Republican side. A slight glitch can help Trump win 270 Electoral College votes.   

READ MORE: https://theworldreviews.com/no-clear-winners-in-the-us-presidential-campaign/

The American president Donald Trump has suddenly retracted from his previous commitment of allowing drilling activity in on parts of Florida’s, South Carolina’s, and Georgia’s coast.

This has left even the congressional aides, lobbyists, and industry officials surprised and taken aback who were awaited to go ahead with the drilling formalities, most probably post elections. But the recent moratorium comes as a contradiction to everything Trump has been vouching for.

But the stance might have just left Florida’s Governor Rick Scott a little happy at this time. Years ago, when Trump had shown intentions of opening drilling in Florida, as a Republican, Scott had been a staunch opponent of the plan, citing his state’s strong tourism industry. Even his successor, Senator Marco Rubio, also a Republican, remains to be a fierce opponent to opening up these areas to oil drilling as well. Rick Scott now serves as a Senator.

In 2018, Florida residents had mixed emotions about drilling formalities. More than 50 percent weren’t in favour then. But White House might just have understood the one thing just in time; that the Florida state votes will (probably) swing towards an anti-coastal drilling.

So while Trump trends on dangerous grounds before reaching to his election day, he will need to tread ahead carefully. The sentiment over self reliance is running strong in America. More than 80 percent people according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report feels the future of America will be secure if the nation can depend on its own resources of natural gas and oil.

The Middle East dependency isn’t looking attractive to anyone. The new government representative will have to ensure he can keep the sentiment in place, unless Trump wants to play again the good poster boy who works in favour of energy lobby.  In 2018, Trump kept his promise of Energy independence when America could export oil and natural gas for the first time in 75 years. Hopefully, he will be able to  adhere to the sentiment of the public if he comes to power again.

One of the factors that helped Brazil to cut the opex is Petrobras, which has replaced its fleet of floating production, storage, and unloading vessels. South America made a quantum leap since 2013, when it was the most expensive region in the world for deep-sea oil and gas production costs. Since then, the average operating expense (opex) per barrel of oil equivalent has more than halved from about $ 26 to $ 12.7 in 2020, a report from Rystad Energy shows. The region also enjoyed the largest drop in costs globally this year, both in absolute terms and percentages.

South America’s deep-sea opex is mainly driven by Brazil, which accounted for about 99% of the continent’s costs from 2013 to 2020. Brazilian state-owned oil company Petrobras alone accounted for nearly 88% of operations in the deep waters of South America. One of the factors that helped Brazil to cut opex is Petrobras, which has replaced its fleet of floating production, storage, and unloading (FPSO) vessels. When the state-owned operator began production on pre-salt docks, it chose to charter most of its fleet, which led to a surge in operating costs. In 2015-2016, the company started ordering other FPSOs but this time owned.

“Looking ahead, we expect deep-sea opex per barrel to remain relatively flat from 2020 to 2021. However, after 2021 we see production costs increase by around $ 4 per barrel, remaining at that level until 2024. with an increase of about $ 1 in 2025”

Matthew Fitzsimmons, Vice President Energy Service Research

The numbers show that Petrobras increased its fleet of owned FPSOs by 16 units, while it reduced the number of leased FPSOs by six units from 2013 to 2020. Eight of the ten courses in Brazil with start-up years from 2018 to 2020 are developed through proprietary FPSOs, while the two remaining fields use leased sections, confirming the country’s shift from companies to proprietary vessels.

Given the current volatility of the market, due to COVID-19 pandemic, Petrobras has also reduced the number of employees by over 22 percent this year thanks to buyout programs. The company expects to achieve a total cost cut of approximately $ 2 billion in 2020 by reducing overheads and giving up unused office space.

Another factor in the reduction of opex in South America is the 55.2% decline in the value of the Brazilian real against the US dollar exchange rate since 2013. That has reduced opex per barrel as costs are incurred in Brazilian currency but paid in dollars. The depreciation of the real therefore helped to offset local inflationary pressures on the prices of general goods and services.Petrobras also increased oil and gas production from 2013 to 2020, pushing opex per barrel down thanks to economies of scale. Globally fields already in production are generally more likely to have a lower peak.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, Rystad energy points out, the portfolio of production fields in South America is rejuvenating, and newer installations require much less maintenance than old oil-fields, which typically have higher operating costs. More than 110 mature fields have been abandoned on the continent in the past eight years, with new camps now accounting for more than half of the total production in South America compared to 17% for very mature fields. In general, the production share of oil-fields that are past half of their lifecycle has dropped dramatically in South America since 2013. It will be interesting to see the cost profiles of Brazil and Petrobras when the decommissioning of more fields begins in a few years old, given the country’s lack of experience in this area.

“Looking ahead, we expect deep-sea opex per barrel to remain relatively flat from 2020 to 2021. However, after 2021 we see production costs increase by around $ 4 per barrel, remaining at that level until 2024. with an increase of about $ 1 in 2025,” Matthew Fitzsimmons, Vice President Energy Service Research at Rystad Energy says.

“The uncertainty inflicted by Covid-19 means that utility companies, operators, and investors will continue to keep an eye on their budgets and steer clear of any unprofitable or high-risk projects in the months and years to come. Due to the generally low and turbulent spot price of Brent, investments and projects that do not meet the cost and risk criteria set by the companies will likely delay this year,” concluded Rystad Energy analysis. Achieving the lowest possible cost per production will therefore be more vital than ever, even though cost reductions such as those seen in 2014-2016 are unlikely as many of the possibilities have already been exhausted. The cost reduction strategies adopted by South America, and in particular Brazil, could serve as a roadmap for other regions and countries in difficulty.”

The world is very well aware of US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s love-hate relationship. Well things are about to get more interesting as the Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward is about to release his new book, Rage. Rage is going to put out details of this tumultuous relationship, snippets of which have already been shared by Trump in the past. It was in 2018, after the first sumit denuclearisation between the two leaders, that US President disclosed their budding relationship. Trump said “We fell in love.” He added “No really. He wrote me beautiful letters. They were great letters. And then we fell in love.”

The first sumit was hailed successful and world was about to become a happy and peaceful place that second summit came a year later and things got rough since then. Woodward through his book is going to let us peep into about 25 of Trump-Kim letters and help us with understanding what could have pushed this new eternal friendship back into eternal enmity.

Book might have time to come out but several US media outlets have already built the hype by publishing excerpts of the personal letters exchanged between the two world leaders over the last two years.  

In their letters, it appeared that both sang praises for each other and appreciated the other person’s greatness. In the letters North Korean ruler loaded Trump with extensive praise, repeatedly addressing him as “Your Excellency” and hailed their “deep and special friendship,” even when US-North Korea nuclear talks started to tear apart. 

“Even now I cannot forget that moment of history when I firmly held Your Excellency’s hand at the beautiful and sacred location as the whole world watched,” Kim told Trump after their first meeting in Singapore in June 2018. It got revealed after the US-based news organisation CNN published on of two Kim letters.

According to CNN, after their second summit in Vietnam, which did not conclude very well, Kim told Trump “every minute we shared 103 days ago in Hanoi was also a moment of glory that remains a precious memory,” 

Trump also reverted in the similar tone. After their Singapore meeting, Trump described Kim as “far beyond smart,” according to the Post. The paper said Trump boasted to Woodward that Kim “tells me everything,” including sharing extensive details of how he killed his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, who was executed in late 2013 for treason. In an interview, Trump gave to VOA, he said Kim was “smart, loves his people, [and] he loves his country.”

“It’s interesting to see how you can see Kim’s personality refracted through these letters,” said Jung Pak, a former CIA analyst who now works at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.  

“Surrounded by sycophants his entire life and as an observer and student of excessive displays of admiration that enveloped his father and grandfather, Kim Jong Un almost certainly understands how to weaponize praise and prey on one’s insecurities and desire for greatness,” said Pak, who recently wrote the book Becoming Kim Jong Un.   Some analyst believe that release of these private letters might impact the ties between both the countries. While Lee Sang-sin of the Korean Institute for National Unification said, “It won’t affect Kim Jong Un’s attitude that much. Kim understood the possibility of leaking.”