Global Trade Shakeup? S&P Cautions on US Tariffs Impacting Asia

S&P Global Ratings recently issued a report indicating that several Asia-Pacific economies could be exposed to increased trade tariffs under the potential Trump administration, with India, South Korea, and Thailand being the most exposed.

Which Countries Are Likely to Be Affected the Most?

As per the report by S&P, “Asia-Pacific Economies Likely To Be Hit By US Trade Tariffs”, nations such as Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and South Korea enjoy healthy economic relations with the United States. These economies would bear the maximum brunt if fresh tariffs are introduced.

India and Japan might not feel the brunt as much due to their economy being domestically-focused, providing certain insulation from a change in tariffs.

US Tariff Policies and Their Effect

The US government, led by Donald Trump, has already imposed US tariff policies:

• 10% extra tariffs on Chinese goods
• 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum

Trump has also talked about “reciprocal tariffs“, i.e., the US might raise duties on nations imposing higher tariffs on American products—led by India.

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Uncertainty in Trade Relations

S&P cautions that the scenario is not clear, since there is a lot of leeway for the US government in the imposition of tariffs. Bilateral talks between the US and other countries impacted will dominate trade policies.

Several Asia-Pacific economies impose higher tariffs on US goods than the US does on their imports. Such countries may be singled out for retaliatory tariffs in the context of “reciprocal tariff action.”.

But it is hard to follow these tariff fluctuations since the US may examine trade statistics at various levels of detail, resulting in varying conclusions.

India, South Korea, and Thailand are in Greater Danger

The S&P study examined:

• Average tariff levels levied by the Asia-Pacific nations on imports from the US
• The tariffs imposed by the US on the nations’ imports
• Differences in tariffs among them

According to this data, India, South Korea, and Thailand are most likely to experience US trade retaliation.

What This Indicates for the Future

If new US tariffs are imposed, Asian-Pacific countries’ exports might be hit, resulting in economic slowdowns in the targeted nations. India and Japan might enjoy some protection because of their domestic markets, but Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand might face significant economic repercussions.