Exploring New Maldives President’s Stance On India-China Rivalry Over The Island Nation

Last updated on July 8th, 2026 at 07:33 am

New Maldivian leader Mohamed Muizzu defeated his predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a presidential runoff in September with more than 53% of the vote. The election had turned into a virtual referendum on which regional power would have the biggest influence in the Maldives.

Muizzu, who supports closer ties with China, has vowed to expel Indian troops from the island nation. India maintains 70 soldiers, a radar system and surveillance aircraft in the archipelago. Indian warships help guard the Maldives, and its aircraft support medical evacuations.

India’s Calm Reaction To Withdrawal Order

India and China have been vying for influence in the Maldives, which sits on a busy shipping corridor. Analysts say these sea lanes are vital for India to defend its southern state of Kerala. But chances of conflict between the two giants over the Maldives appear low at the moment.

New Delhi’s calm reaction to the withdrawal order is notable. According to Manoj Joshi of the Observer Research Foundation, India had correctly responded by not overreacting to the directive and is hopeful of a compromise.

The Maldives drifted rapidly towards China after Abdullah Yameen was elected as president in 2013. India’s Earth Sciences Minister Kiren Rijiju attended the swearing-in ceremony of Muizzu, in contrast to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attending the ceremony of Solih in 2018.

Why Maldives Can’t Expel All The Indians

New Delhi and Beijing have invested heavily in developing infrastructure in the tourism-dependent Indian Ocean archipelago in recent years. Nonetheless, the India-China rivalry over the Maldives should not be exaggerated.

While it is inevitable that Beijing will expand its investments in the tiny island nation, India’s presence is also expected to remain strong. The Maldives can’t expel all the Indians as its economy heavily relies on Indian tourists and hospitality staff.