Israel-Hamas War: A Month On, Has The Conflict Lifted The Lid On Our Doubts?

A few days before Hamas’s surprise attack on Israeli cities on October 7, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested the region had entered a “quieter” era.

The Abraham Accords had created an atmosphere of peaceful cooperation and Saudi Arabia was on the cusp of establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.

A month into the war, the Palestinian death toll crossed 10,000 on Monday, while the Middle East and the world as a whole has become a much-changed place.

“West Upholding International Rule Of Law Very Partially”

“There are now more than 9,000 people dead in Gaza, approaching the same number of civilians as Vladimir Putin has killed in Ukraine,” said Charlotte Leslie.

The director of the Conservative Middle East Council further noted: “People in the Arab world are very angry as they see the West upholding international rule of law very partially.”

If the Hamas assault damaged Israeli military, intelligence and political standing, it has also seriously undermined that of the United States and other Western powers.

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Russia And China Could Play A Brokering Role

In the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack, Joe Biden gave unqualified support to Israel, as did Britain and others, potentially bolstering Israel’s desire to lash out in retailiation.

“The West is now going to find it very difficult to play any kind of constructive brokering role, because they are not going to be trusted by the other side,” said Leslie.

Hamas’s attacks also created a space for Russia and China to become potential brokers for the two-state solution. That position was earlier occupied by Britain.

How Will The Israel-Hamas Conflict End?

The raging war could last for several weeks, months or even a year, potentially ending with a truce and no winner. In the past four weeks, much of northern Gaza has disappeared.

With Gaza City now encircled, Israel will likely fight street-by-street and strike the spider’s web of tunnels. It is unlikely to stop before it is able to claim a form of victory.

Hamas’s assault on Israeli cities was a clear demonstration of the group’s high level of military skill and discipline. The event left about 1,400 people dead, with some 240 taken hostages.