Is A Post-War Gaza Conceivable? Who Or What Will Manage The Enclave Next?

Ayman Safadi, Foreign Minister of Jordan, said on Saturday at a press conference alongside US Secretary of State Antony Blinken: “How can we even entertain what will happen in Gaza when we do not know what kind of Gaza will be left after this war is done?”

The tentative US proposal is for a reformed Palestinian Authority, dominated by Fatah, which manages the West Bank, to come back to Gaza. But Israel’s right doesn’t want to comply. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has rejected US advise to leave Gaza once the war ends.

What Kind Of Gaza Will Be Left After War

Prof Jacob Nagel, a former national security adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, insists Israel cannot risk giving up security control of Gaza. “No matter which entity will take responsibility for Gaza’s civil affairs, Israel will be the full security authority.”

Nonetheless, Mohammad Shtayyeh, Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, in a recent interview with The Guardian ruled out going into the impoverished Gaza Strip to replace Hamas without a comprehensive deal that includes the West Bank and the birth of a Palestinian state.

While Israel unilaterally left Gaza in 2005, the secularist Fatah was pushed out of the enclave by Hamas in 2007 in a bloody battle after losing elections in 2006. Even though Hamas and Fatah have different stances on Israel’s future, Israel sees little distinction between the two groups.

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How Israeli Politics Responds To Its Trauma

The eventual realistic options available to the international community for the future governance of the Gaza Strip will depend in part on how Israeli politics responds to its trauma. Polls have highlighted a picture of depleting personal support for Netanyahu.

The main split exists over whether Netanyahu should resign immediately or later. A poll by the Lazar Institute for the Israeli daily Maariv found support for the incumbent Prime Minister on 27% and Benny Gantz, the former army chief co-opted into an emergency war cabinet, on 49%.