Erdogan’s Bold Balkan Ambitions: Resolve Serbia-Kosovo Conflict to Cement Turkish Influence

Sworn in for the third term as Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again turned to the Balkans. This region is close to his heart as it was ruled directly by the Ottoman Empire in the 14^th century to the early 20th. As such, Ankara is very much keen to pursue healthy relations with as many governments in the Balkans. 

However, this isn’t easy for Turkey because of the ongoing conflict between Serbia and Kosovo. There’s also Bosnia, Herzegovina (BiH) and Montenegro, not forgetting Belgrade and Pristina disputes. While Erdogan has stepped up to resolve Serbia – Kosovo conflict, European nations have raised concerns about Turkish expansionism. But Turkey argued that this is the need of the hour, to prevent escalation of the political crisis spreading to other parts of the Balkans.

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Prevent Escalation

Matthew Bryza, former U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan, told The New Arab that stability in the case of BiH means that the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik doesn’t create further tension to separate from Bosnia. In the 1990s, the Turks referred to the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska as “Serbian Butcher”, and a Serb paramilitary force as the “Scorpions” who went on a genocidal rampage against Bosniaks. To this day, the Turks will never allow the world to forget the horrors of the Bosnia (1992 – 1995) war, wherein 100,000 lives were lost and over two million Bosnians became refugees.

Bryza believes Turkey can help BiH avoid rolling into a conflict through Ankara’s cooperation with its European allies in NATO and the European Union. But Turkey also doesn’t want to find itself in the middle of Bosnia’s internal political struggles. However, Erdogan knows he has to step in as Western countries, China, and Russia have also shown interest in the Balkans. Turkey has the upper hand because of historical ties, and cultural connections with the region. With a shared Muslim heritage and centuries-old Ottoman rule, Turkey has built cultural bridges that President Erdogan leverages for diplomatic gains.

Influence and Engagement

By positioning itself as a mediator, Turkey aims to enhance its geopolitical standing, expand trade opportunities, and boost its ties with Balkan countries. And under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey has adopted an assertive foreign policy, wherein the Balkans has become a key arena for expanding its influence. Ankara’s influence is evident in some Balkan countries like Albania, Bosnia, North Macedonia and Herzegovina. Erdogan has gained repute and support from leaders of these nations as they regard Turkey as an alternative partner offering economic opportunities and political support.

Earlier this month, Turkey announced plans to send troops to Kosovo to join NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping force to help quell unrest. The Turkish defense ministry called for restraint and talks. The situation turned out of control in Kosovo’s north after ethnic Albanian mayors took office in the Serb-majority area. 

Turkey’s influence and active engagement prompted both sides to the negotiation table, encouraging dialogue and compromise. However, the challenge remains as the conflict is deeply rooted in historical grievances and territorial claims. But this hasn’t deterred Erdogan as he aims to strengthen ties and boost Turkey’s geopolitical standing. He has renewed efforts for peace talks.